Digital History

The tremendous increase in stock market prices during the 1920s was largely based upon value. The market continued to decline for another two and a half years – through all of 1930, all of 1931, and half of 1932. After reaching a new level of equilibrium in March 1987, approximately centered on the upper 3-sigma limit established in the preceding period, the continued at this level through September 1987. With all of the economic and political problems extant, I doubt that there is anybody who really knows how low the stock market could go during nearby years. But if you can buy during the bottom 30{d07e726dc35321c1887ba4b2e6d346fe7eafad5ef6cfcf877aa9d8d8ffdb003a} of the market and sell during the top 30{d07e726dc35321c1887ba4b2e6d346fe7eafad5ef6cfcf877aa9d8d8ffdb003a} you will go along way to becoming a successful investor. Subjective crash probabilities tended to rise following an increase in the number of recent news-media uses of the word crash” or other words indicating severe market losses.

The market is becoming flooded with stocks, and yet people feel that the values of stocks will continue to rise. Another long market crash -one that many people still remember (think Vietnam and the Watergate scandal). Compared to the end of 2007 the FTSE is down around 14{d07e726dc35321c1887ba4b2e6d346fe7eafad5ef6cfcf877aa9d8d8ffdb003a} and of course may fall further or recover. You have to change it.” Virginia Durr, a Federal employee, on ways that people reacted to the Great Depression. Most people like to chase after money during the period of expansion, when the market is very hot and this is a sure loose strategy. Altogether, between September 1929 and June 1932, the nation’s stock exchanges lost $179 billion in value.Stock Market CrashStock Market Crash

Most people were not that concerned with declines in stock value during October 1929, dismissing this as just market fluctuation. Any corrective move in stocks will bring fear into the eyes of traders who have not been exposed to deep market corrections before. Market analysis shows that the new price levels of oil are caused by the simple mechanism of supply and demand. After more than tripling their collective balance sheets since 2008 (an increase of nearly $12 trillion) to stimulate the world economy, global GDP growth is still stumbling along at an uninspiring 2.5{d07e726dc35321c1887ba4b2e6d346fe7eafad5ef6cfcf877aa9d8d8ffdb003a} — and showing signs of slowing. In my investing lifetime, we’ve had one big stock market crash (1987), one big dot com bust (2000) and one big GFC (2008). When the Dow breaks below 12,200 (we’ve come awfully close several times) then the relentless stock market crash has begun and should complete in approx 2018.

Between July 2014 and January 2015 the price of oil plunged over 55{d07e726dc35321c1887ba4b2e6d346fe7eafad5ef6cfcf877aa9d8d8ffdb003a} One of the steepest legs of this decline was a 10{d07e726dc35321c1887ba4b2e6d346fe7eafad5ef6cfcf877aa9d8d8ffdb003a} drop that occurred on Black Friday 28 November following a meeting of OPEC. The time has come to brace for severe turbulence, likely starting in very late-2012/early-13, with a crash landing around 2018. It occurred on Black Tuesday, October 29, the day the stock market experienced the greatest crash in its history. So, it seems a stock market crash is very close, but I don’t believe the elite bankers will let it happen before the US elections, so it is somewhere after November.Stock Market Crash

However, not all was lost: a rally that started when Richard Whitey, then head of the New York Stock Exchange, calmly began buying shares of U.S. Steel and other companies. One of the myths about the Black Tuesday crash was that many bankrupt investors committed suicide that day. Forex or foreign exchange is truly a 24 hour market – there is always activity and it not dependent on 1 main location – as the stock exchange is with the NYE. Inasmuch as it passed after the Depression was well underway, it was not realized that the debate and certain passage spooked the forward-looking stock market. Stock Market Returns Since 19XX : Contrasts returns-to-date of investors who bought before the crash with those who bought afterwards.